Archive for forecasts

Market Brief-October 2017

Each month, our Heritage Investment team publishes a market brief to provide an overview of the major factors influencing the US economy, including a summary of key sectors and the current positives & challenges.

Click Market Brief October 2017 for updates.

Here are some key highlights

POSITIVES:

  • Although, the income and spending trend has been downward over the past 3 years,consumer spending and personal income are still growing and inflation is low, which makes our dollar go further.
  • The PMI Manufacturing report (reflective of activity in private sector economy) continues to report moderate growth. September figure of 53.1 compared to 53.0 in August, shows little change. Hurricane effects can be seen in delivery delays which has slowed the most since Feb 2016.
  • ISM Manufacturing index has strengthened to an index of 60.8 in September, which is a 13-year best, signifying that there has been growth in the manufacturing sector. Hurricanes increased input prices but did not slow down production.
  • European equities (except for Spain, due to the Catalan referendum) have been up in the last week of September, partially due to weakening of the EURO. Gains ranged from 0.2% to 1.9%.

CHALLENGES:

  • September payrolls are likely to slow down. Forecasters predict only a 95,000 rise for September non farm payrolls (compared to 156,000 increase in Aug). The risk is that Harvey and Irma could further impact the results.
  • Jobless claims in Texas rose early in September, while claims in Florida began to rise mid September. We are yet to see the effects on Puerto Rico.
  •  House sales in the south

INVESTMENT OUTLOOK- JANUARY 2017

2017?

by Jim McElroy, jmcelroy@argentfinancial.com

Summary
 A calendar-year forecast for 2017 is even more difficult than usual because of the uncertainties accompanying the new regime in Washington
 Proposed tax reform, deregulation and fiscal stimulus could be good for the economy
 Despite Republican control of Congress and the White House, there is no guarantee that such reforms will occur
 Potential trade wars and the ballooning deficits from unfunded military and infrastructure spending are significant risks
 Interest rates and inflation will need to be monitored closely
 The strengthening of the dollar has beneficial and detrimental effects to the U.S.
 Despite the uncertainties, we are positive in our outlook and expect equities to outperform cash and bonds

investment

Click here to read the entire article.