Archive for market

Market Brief-October 2017

Each month, our Heritage Investment team publishes a market brief to provide an overview of the major factors influencing the US economy, including a summary of key sectors and the current positives & challenges.

Click Market Brief October 2017 for updates.

Here are some key highlights

POSITIVES:

  • Although, the income and spending trend has been downward over the past 3 years,consumer spending and personal income are still growing and inflation is low, which makes our dollar go further.
  • The PMI Manufacturing report (reflective of activity in private sector economy) continues to report moderate growth. September figure of 53.1 compared to 53.0 in August, shows little change. Hurricane effects can be seen in delivery delays which has slowed the most since Feb 2016.
  • ISM Manufacturing index has strengthened to an index of 60.8 in September, which is a 13-year best, signifying that there has been growth in the manufacturing sector. Hurricanes increased input prices but did not slow down production.
  • European equities (except for Spain, due to the Catalan referendum) have been up in the last week of September, partially due to weakening of the EURO. Gains ranged from 0.2% to 1.9%.

CHALLENGES:

  • September payrolls are likely to slow down. Forecasters predict only a 95,000 rise for September non farm payrolls (compared to 156,000 increase in Aug). The risk is that Harvey and Irma could further impact the results.
  • Jobless claims in Texas rose early in September, while claims in Florida began to rise mid September. We are yet to see the effects on Puerto Rico.
  •  House sales in the south

Monthly Market Brief-July 2017

Each month, our Heritage Investment team publishes a market brief to provide an overview of the major factors influencing the US economy, including a summary of key sectors and the current positives & challenges.

Click Market Brief July 2017 for updates.

Here are some key highlights:

POSITIVES:

  • Non-farm payrolls beat consensus expectations, adding 222,000 jobs in June
  • The ISM Manufacturing Index surged nearly 3 percentage points in June to 57.8, driven by strong new orders, production, and backlog
  • Consumer confidence came in at a strong 118.9, the highest posting in 16 years

CHALLENGES:

  • Consumer inflation remains weak which does not support the Federal Reserve’s plan to increase interest rates and reduce their bond buying
  • Consumer spending will likely remain relatively weak if income continues to slip
  • Housing remains soft as indicated by relatively weak pending home sales and building permits

Monthly Market Brief- June 2017

Each month, our Heritage Investment team publishes a market brief to provide an overview of the major factors influencing the US economy, including a summary of key sectors and the current positives & challenges.

Click Market Brief June 2017 for June 2017 updates.

Here are some key highlights:

POSITIVES:

  • European equities continue to outpace the U.S. market with solid fundamentals and increased investor confidence in response to Emmanuel Macron’s French presidential win
  • The ISM non-manufacturing Index came in at 56.9, driven by strong backlogs and strength in employment
  • 1stquarter GDP was revised up from 0.7% to 1.2%

CHALLENGES:

  • As the pool of candidates dwindled to a 9 year low, non-farm payrolls posted its weakest reading in nearly 5 years, adding just 138,000 jobs in May
  • Wage growth remains surprisingly weak even as the unemployment rate sits at a 16-year low of 4.3%
  • The effects of low wages has likely played a part in weakening vehicle sales & a decline in existing home sales; further weakness in consumer spending is expected
  • Political uncertainty remains a near-term risk given the multiple challenges facing the Trump administration

Monthly Market Brief- December

Each month, our Heritage Investment team publishes a market brief to provide an overview of the major factors influencing the US economy, including a summary of key sectors and the current positives & challenges.

Click Market Brief December 2016 for the December 2016 update.

Here are some key highlights:

POSITIVES

o Consumer confidence jumped 6.6% in November to a cycle high not seen since July 2007
o Manufacturing enjoyed a nice post-election bounce with the ISM manufacturing index up 1.3 points to 53.2 and the U.S. MarkitManufacturing PMI increasing to a more-than-expected 53.9
o Short-term stabilization of oil prices was recently achieved as OPEC reached an agreement to cut oil production for the first time since 2008
o Trending in-line with the 2016 non-farm payroll average of 180,000, a respectable 178,000 jobs were added in November

CHALLENGES

oWage growth remains a disappointing component within U.S. jobs, accelerating only 2.5% year-over-year
oThe recent improvement in the unemployment rate from 4.9% to 4.6% was largely driven by a contraction in the labor force participation rate