In this morning’s data, Initial Jobless Claims were 373,000 for the week ending July 3rd, a small increase of 2,000 over the previous week’s revised level. On the other hand, Continuing Claims were 3,339,000 for the week ending June 26th, which is a decrease from the previous week’s revised level. Overall, a slight reversal in the positive trend lower for initial claims, while continuing claims remain on a lower path. Initial claims are getting closer to 300k, which is usually considered normal for a healthy economy, but we are not there yet; and continuing claims still need to fall considerably further to get to levels seen prior to the pandemic. These data points highlight the fact that the labor market needs more time to recover, given the considerable dislocations caused by the pandemic. In all, bond yields have ticked lower in recent days, touching levels below 1.3% and equity futures are markedly lower as we head into the market open.
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