From our colleagues at our sister company, Argent Trust:
Announced this morning, Initial Jobless Claims were 261,000 for the week ending June 3rd, much higher than expected and a sizable increase from the previous week. Continuing Claims were 1,757,000 for the week ending May 27th, less than expected and slightly lower than the previous figure.
Overall, a mixed report with a sizable weekly increase in initial claims and a drop in continuing claims. Initial claims have reached the highest level since October 2021, inching closer to the 300k level considered normal for the economy. Continuing claims fell, indicating people looking for work were able to find jobs, and have leveled off in recent weeks, denoting some stability. While the labor market still appears resilient, the trend of higher initial claims shows weakening from strong levels. Meanwhile, other economic measures are already challenged, including ISM manufacturing remaining in contractionary territory and ISM services moving lower in previous weeks. The Federal Reserve will need to balance these data, including elevated inflation levels, during their discussion and decision from next week’s meeting.
In all, the yield on the 10-year US treasury ticks lower following the report, and equity futures are mixed as we head into the market open.
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