From our colleagues at our sister company, Argent Trust:
In this morning’s data, Initial Jobless Claims were 222,000 for the week ending September 3rd, less than expected and slightly less than the previous week. Continuing Claims were 1,473,000 for the week ending August 27th, more than expected and higher than the previous week. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank decided to raise interest rates by 0.75% or seventy-five basis points to combat inflation and keep up with policy tightening by other central banks around the world.
Overall, a slight decrease in jobless claims and an increase in continuing claims when compared to the previous week. Jobless claims remain healthy, well below the 300,000 level that is typical for a durable economy. After reaching cycle lows of 166,000 this past Spring, jobless claims increased throughout the Summer, but have pulled back in recent weeks. As a real-time indicator, an increase in jobless claims normally denotes stress in the labor market; however, most payroll reports throughout this year have been remarkably positive. Given these dynamics, the Federal Reserve will likely continue their tough talk on combatting inflation with further interest rate increases and balance sheet reductions in the coming months.
In all, the yield on the 10-year US treasury ticks higher and equity futures are lower as we head into the market open.
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